Using Extrapolation Techniques of Big Data to Improve the Effectiveness of Sales Forecasting – Empirical Evidence on the Egyptian Passengers Automobile Market.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14738/abr.94.10022Keywords:
Marketing, Sales Forecasting, Extrapolation.Abstract
Sales forecasting is the tactical and strategic trigger for a significant number of crucial functional and management activities. Extrapolation techniques will be used as mathematical tools for demand forecasting, where extrapolation methods estimates or generate values beyond the range of the original set of data. A triangulated approach of experimental essences was applied to data analysis composed of ARIMA, exponential smoothing and grey model GM(1,1). This research is an endeavor to demonstrate the robustness of certain extrapolation models and procedures with a view to word improving the effectiveness of sales forecast in terms of relevance and accuracy. The forecasted sales for both brands is both reserved and yet relatively optimistic. Thus, manifesting the high risk/high return profile of the Egyptian passenger automobile market.
References
Davis, D.F., and Mantzer, J.T, (2007), Organizational Factors in Sales Forecast Management, Business Horizons, 23(3), 475-495.
Deng. J, (1990), “Grey System Theory”, Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press.
Hyndman, R. J., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K., and Snyder, R. D. (2005). Prediction intervals for exponential smoothing using two new classes of state space models. Journal of Forecasting, 24, 17-37.
Hyndman, R.J. and Athanasopoulous, George (2018), forecasts: - Principles and Practices, googlebooks.com.
Lee, W.I., Shih, B.X., and Chen, C.Y, (2012), Retracted:- A Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Sales Forecasting System in the Convenience Store Industry, Human factor and Ergonomics in Manufacturing and Sciences industry, 22(3), 188-196.
Madhi. M and M. Norizan, (2017), “An Initial Condition Optimization Approach for Improving the Prediction Precision of a GM(1,1) Model”, Mathematical Computational Applications, 22(21), 1-8.
Mantzer, J.T, Bianstock, C.C, Khan, K.B., (1999), Benchmarking sales forecasting management, Business Horizons, 42(3), 48-57.
Moon, M.A., Mentzer, J.T., and Smith, C.D., (2003), Conducting a Sales Forecast Audit, International Journal of Forecasts, 19(1), 5-52.
Sagaert, Y.R., Aghezzaf, E.H, Kourentzes, N., and Desmet, B., (2018), Tactical Sales Forecasting Using a very Larg Set of Macroeconomics Indicators. Europian Journal of Operational Research, 264(2), 558-569.
Zang, G.P., (2003), Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model, Neurocomputing 50, 159–175. URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.94.10022 95
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2021 Wael Kortam, Amr Soliman

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.