Sensitivity of Debt Flows to Fiscal External Shocks in Emerging Market and Capital Market Correlations

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14738/assrj.85.10229

Keywords:

Capital Inflows; Debt Flows; Emerging Markets; Fiscal External Shocks; Policy Interest Rates.

Abstract

In this study, we attempted to reveal the reasons for possible debt changes regarding the sensitivity of capital change indices in emerging economies to global financial risks and the meaning of possible correlation effects at the global level. Overcoming to Global economic and financial instabilities in emerging economies have required to take different fiscal measure have been aimed at balancing the rising interest rates and global financial change costs, which are caused by rising global priority costs. The external effects of global financial shocks in emerging economies led to a significant increase in global borrowing in these economies. In other words, in these countries representing emerging economies at different levels of development, they have also provided a reason for the inclusion of different financial and monetary policies in the process. Sensitivity to global financial shocks in emerging economies is related to the structural characteristics of countries and structural impact scales and correlations regarding which markets are affected by the needs. In this respect, it appears that the developments regarding the sectors, especially the capital flow, are meaningful in terms of indexes created by the periodic changes in the values of the current change. In this respect, in emerging economies, these shocks mostly emerge with effects giving different correlation results in countries that differ according to global crises and have other capital accumulations. The remarkable point in terms of the correlations determined here is that debt ratios and capital accumulation variations in emerging economies have put forth a significant correlation in a period of global financial shocks.

References

Jong, J. D., Ferdinandusse, M., Funda, J. and Vetlov, I. (2017), The Effect of Public Investment in Europe: A Model-Based Assessment, Working Paper Series No. 2021, February 2017, Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank, 2017.

Bank for International Settlements and International Monetary Fund (1997), Financial Stability in Emerging Market Economies: A Strategy for The Formulation, Adoption and Implementation of Sound Principles and Practices to Strengthen Financial Systems, Basle/Paris: Report of the Working Party on Financial Stability in Emerging Market Economies, April, 1997.

European Commission (2019), Assessment of EU Fiscal Rules with A Focus on The Six and Two-Pack Legislation, Brussels: European Commission, Secretariat of the European Fiscal Board, August 2019.

OECD (2000), Financial Globalizatıon and The Emerging Economies, José Antonio Ocampo, Stefano Zamagni, Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Carlo Pietrobelli (Eds.), International Jacques Marıtaın Instıtute, LC/G.2097-P, Santiago: United Nations Publication, May 2000.

Koh, W. C., Kose, M. A., Nagle, P. S., Ohnsorge, F. L. and Sugawara, N. (2019), Debt and Financial Crises, World Bank Group Policy Research Working Paper 9116, Washington D.C.: World Bank Publishing, January 2019.

Llaudes, R., Salman, F. and Chivakul, M. (2020), The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets, IMF Working Papers 10(237), Washington D.C: IMF Working Paper Publishing, October 2010.

Kose, M. A., Sugawara, N. and Terrones, M. E. (2020), Global Recessions, World Bank Group Policy Research Working Paper 9172, Washington D.C.: World Bank Group Policy Research Publishing, March 2020.

Senadza, B., Fiagbe, A. K. and Quartey, P. (2018), “The effect of External Debt on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa”, International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 11(1), pp. 61-69.

Gill, I. and Pinto, B. (2005), Public Debt in Developing Countries: Has The Market-Based Model Worked?, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3674, Washington D.C.: World Bank Publishing, August 2005.

Chowdhury, A. R. (2001), External Debt and Growth in Developing Countries A Sensitivity and Causal Analysis, United Nations University World Institute for Development Economic Research, Discussion Paper No. 2001/95, Helsinki: UNU World Institute for Development Economics Research Publishing, September 2001.

Perveen, A. and Munir, K. (2017), Impact of Total, Internal and External Government Debt on Interest Rate in Pakistan, Munich Personel RePEc Archive (MPRA) Paper No. 83427, Munich: Munich Personel RePEc Archive (MPRA), 30 October 2017.

United Nations-UNCTAD (2010), The Financial and Economic Crisis of 2008-2009 and Developing Countries, Sebastian Dullien, Detlef J. Kotte, Alejandro Márquez and Jan Priewe (Eds.), New York and Geneva: United Nations-UNCTAD, December 2010.

Bank for International Settlements (2009), Capital Flows and Emerging Market Economies, Report submitted by a Working Group Established by the Committee on The Global Financial System (CGFS), CGFS Papers No 33, Basel: Bank for International Settlements Report Publishing, January 2009.

Bank for International Settlements (1997), Financial Stability In Emerging Market Economies: A Strategy for The Formulation, Adoption and Implementation of Sound Principles and Practices to Strengthen Financial Systems, Report of the Working Party on Financial Stability in Emerging Market Economies, Basel: Bank for International Settlements Report Publishing, April 1997.

Claessens, S. and Kose, M. A. (2013), Financial Crises: Explanations, Types, and Implications, IMF Working Paper WP/13/28, Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Publishing, January 2013.

United Nations-UNCTAD (2019), External Shocks and Financial Stress Post The Global Financial Crises: UNCTAD Financial Conditions Indicators and Financial Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets, UNCTAD/GDS/2018/1, Geneva: Unıted Natıons Conference on Trade and Development-UNCTAD, 2019.

Alper, K. (2008), “Monetary Policy and External Shocks in a Dollarized Economy with Credit Market Imperfections”, Central Bank Review, 2, pp. 33-73.

United Nations (2012), Risk Management in Regulatory Frameworks: Towards a Better Management of Risks, by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, New York and Geneva: United Nations Economic Commission Publishing, June 2012.

Gaber, S. (2010), “Economic Implications from Deficit Finance”, BERG Working Paper Series on Government and Growth, Working Paper No. 69, Bamberg: Bamberg University Economic Research Group, January: 2010. Özker, A. N. (2021). Sensitivity of Debt Flows to Fiscal External Shocks in Emerging Market and Capital Market Correlations. Advances in Social

Macovei, M. (2009), Growth and Economic Crises in Turkey: Leaving Behind a Turbulent Past?, European Commission Economic Papers 386, Brussels: European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Publications, October 2009.

IMF (2020), The IMF Executive Board Discusses “The Evolution of Public Debt Vulnerabilities in Lower Income Economies, Press Release No. 20/33, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Publishing, February 10, 2020.

Tjukanov, T. (2011), Gross Domestic Product as a Modern-day Economic Indicator, Helsinki Metropolia University of Applied Sciences Bachelor of Business Administration International Business and Logistics Bachelor’s Thesis-October 2011.

European Commission (2009), Impact of The Current Economic and Financial Crisis on Potential Output, Occasional Paper 49, Brussels: European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Publications, June 2009.

Randveer, M., Uusküla, L. and Kulu, L. (2011), The Impact of Private Debt on Economic Growth, Bank of Estonia (Eesti Pank) Working Paper Series 10/2011.

Ai, C. and Norton, E. C. (2003), “Interaction Terms in Logit and Probit Models”, Economic Letters, 80, pp. 123–129.

IMF (2017), Roads Less Traveled: Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies in A Complicated External Environment, in World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum?, Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Publishing, April 2017.

United Nations (2019), World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019, New York: The Report-Joint Product of The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN/DESA), 2019.

Downloads

Published

2021-05-20

How to Cite

Özker, A. N. (2021). Sensitivity of Debt Flows to Fiscal External Shocks in Emerging Market and Capital Market Correlations. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 8(5), 157–171. https://doi.org/10.14738/assrj.85.10229