On the Economic Health of Vietnam’s Construction Industry

Authors

  • Tristan Nguyen
  • Trung Dung Doan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14738/abr.63.4289

Abstract

This paper analyzes the economic health of Vietnam’s construction industry. The sample data have been collected from 32 construction companies listed on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange during 2013 to 2014. Their financial reports have been taken into account to examine the business condition by using the Altman Z-score Model and the Emerging Market Model. In these two models, the impact of Growth, Tangibility, Debt Ratio, Size and Cash Conversion Cycle are proved to be negative in relation with the firm’s performance in the original Z-sore. We find out in our analysis that the Emerging Market Model is the more appropriate model for assessing the health of Vietnam’s construction firms. In addition, further hypothesis tests are conducted to provide a regression analysis of the correlation between the Z-score and the five factors mentioned above. The regression has revealed that none of these factors has positive or negative impacts on Vietnam’s construction enterprises.

References

Altman, E. (1968), “Financial Ratio, Discriminant Analysis and The Prediction of Corporate bankruptcy”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 23, pp. 589-609.

Altman, E. (2005), “An Emerging Market Credit Scoring System for Corporate Bond”, Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 6, pp. 311-323.

Altman, E. (2013), “Predicting Financial Distress of Companies: Revisiting the Z-Score and ZETA Model”, Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 428-456.

Altman, E. and P. Narayanan (1977), “ZETA Analysis: A new model to identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporation”, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 1, pp. 29-51.

Beaver, H. (1966), “Financial Ratio as predictor of failure”, Journal Accounting Research, Vol. 4, pp.123-127.

BMI Report (2015), “Vietnam Investment Law to Boost Business Environment”, Available at https://www.bmiresearch.com/articles/vietnams-investment-law-to-boost-business-environment

Chieng, J. (2013), “Verifying the Validity of Altman’s Z’’ score as a Predictor of Bank Failure in the case of the Eurozone”, Available at http://trap.ncirl.ie/865/

Dang, G and L. Pheng (2015), Infastructure Investment in Developing Economies – The Case of Vietnam, Springer Science + Business Media, Singapore.

Dao. B and N. Tu (2014), “Herding Behavior: Overview and Evidence in Vietnam Stock Market”, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2543723 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2543723

Enshassi, A. Al-Hallaq, K. and S. Mohamed (2006), “Causes of Contractor's Business Failure in Developing Countries: The Case of Palestine”, Journal of Construction in Developing Countries, Vol. 11(2), pp. 1-14.

Fisher. R A (1936), “Use of Multiple Measurement in Taxonomic Problems”, Annals of Eugenics, Vol. 7, pp. 179-188.

McKay, A. (2016), “The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the US Business Cycle”, Econometrica, Vol. 84, pp. 141-194.

Mckee, T.E. (2000), “Developing a Bankruptcy prediction model via rough sets theory”, Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, Vol. 9(3), pp.159-173.

Nguyen, T. and C. Nguyen (2015), “Capital structure and Firm’s Performance: Evidence from Vietnam’s Stock Exchange”, International Journal of Economics and Finances, Vol. 7(12), pp.1-10.

Ohlson, J.A. (1980), “Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy”, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 18, 109-131.

Pretorious, P. (2009), “Defining business decline, failure and turnaround: a content analysis”, The Southern African Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management, Vol. 2(1), pp. 1-16.

Siddiqui, S.A. (2012), “Business bankruptcy prediction model: A significant study of the Altman’s Z-score Model”, Asian Journal of Management Research, Vol. 3(1), pp. 212-219.

Taffler, R.J. (1984), “Empirical model for the mornitoring of UK corporation”, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 8 (2), pp. 199-227.

Torres-Coronas, T., A. Belzunegui-Eraso and J. Moreno-Gené (2015) “Finding solutions for a Post-Crisis Society: 1st International Virtual SBRLab Conference”, Available at http://llibres.urv.cat/index.php/purv/catalog/book/169

Ucbasaran, D., D.A. Shepherd, A. Lockett and S.J. Lyon (2013), “Life after Business Failure: The Process and Consequences of Business Failure for Entrepreneurs”, Journal of Management, Vol. 39(1), pp. 163-202.

Vietnam Report (2016), “RLB Construction Market Update - Vietnam Q4 2016”, Available at http://rlb.com/en/index/publications/?filter-publication-type=Research&filter-region=asia

Vo, X.V. and D.B.A. Phan (2016), “Herd Behavior in Emerging Equity Markets: Evidence from Vietnam”, Asian Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 7(3), pp. 369-383.

Wong, J.M.W. and Ng, T.S.T. (2010), “Company failure in construction industry: a critical review and a future research agenda”, Available at http://hub.hku.hk/handle/10722/127294

World Bank (2012), “Vietnam needs to seize its urbanization opportunities to become a middle income country”, Available at http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2012/04/05/vietnam-needs-to-seize-itsurbanization-opportunities-to-become-a-middle-income-country

Zmijewski, M.E. (1984), “Methodological issues related to the estimation of financial distress prediction model”, Journal of Accounting research, Vol. 22, pp. 59-82.

Downloads

Published

2018-03-24

How to Cite

Nguyen, T., & Doan, T. D. (2018). On the Economic Health of Vietnam’s Construction Industry. Archives of Business Research, 6(3), 129–141. https://doi.org/10.14738/abr.63.4289