Preparatory Release Capacity: A Simulation-Based Decision Support System for Pre-Arrival Bail Planning Under Uncertainty

Abstract

Monetary-bail decisions create a difficult planning problem because individuals may need to prepare for release before a court establishes whether bail will be imposed or the amount required. This study develops and evaluates a decision support system (DSS) for comparing pre-arrival preparation strategies under uncertainty. The artifact introduces Preparatory Release Capacity (PRC), defined as the combined liquidity readiness, coordination readiness, and funding certainty assembled before surrender. PRC is operationalized as a 0 to 6 index independent of simulated outcomes. The DSS uses Monte Carlo simulation with common random numbers to compare seven strategies across four synthetic bail environments calibrated to published national benchmarks. A 20,000-draw analysis generated 560,000 strategy-scenario observations. In unconstrained analyses, prepaid preparation minimized modeled initial detention in all environments, saving 2.67 to 7.69 hours relative to no preparation. Under a $300 expected-cost constraint, recommendations shifted across environments, demonstrating context-sensitive decision support. PRC was strongly associated with lower modeled initial detention, lower funding-shortfall probability, and greater hours saved. Across 48 sensitivity conditions, the modeled-delay-minimizing recommendation remained stable, while premium rates altered cost-effectiveness and coordination delays altered the magnitude of detention reduction. The artifact contributes a transparent, reproducible framework for evaluating preparation under uncertain release conditions while explicitly separating judicial decisions from post-decision coordination and liquidity mechanisms. The artifact is calibrated to the United States pretrial justice system and should not be interpreted as representing bail practices in all jurisdictions.