Financial Viability of Red Sea Urchin (Mesocentrotus franciscanus) Aquaculture: A Comprehensive Analysis of Risk, Production Costs, and Market Dynamics under Macroeconomic Scenarios

Abstract

This study investigates the financial viability of red sea urchin (Mesocentrotus franciscanus) aquaculture, addressing key economic factors such as production costs (CAPEX and OPEX), larval prices, and market dynamics. Through a comprehensive literature review and the development of a dual financial model (deterministic and stochastic), critical parameters influencing profitability are identified. While a baseline deterministic model suggests an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 22.4%, the incorporation of stochastic variables based on historical inflation and Mexican CETES rates reveals significant vulnerability (negative NPV given a 6.14% discount rate). The results demonstrate that optimizing the larval phase and reducing initial investment (CAPEX) are crucial for mitigating macroeconomic risk. This study provides a robust risk assessment framework for investors and policymakers.