Pushing Over the Edge May Lead to an Unprecedented Response

Abstract

Starting from the observation that a trapped animal may attack its hunter when desperate, this short opinion article asks whether desperate leaders and nations may respond in unprecedented ways when pushed to the edge. The authors discuss three cases. North Korea under Kim Jong Un is presented as a regime that uses a large military and nuclear arsenal to deter international pressure and that, if pushed over the edge and feeling secure with the support of China, could retaliate with nuclear weapons and initiate a world war. The regime of the Iranian Ayatollahs is presented as relying on a security belt, Shia forces outside Iran, a large military arsenal and treaties with Russia, China and North Korea; the authors argue that it can still be impeded through common Western efforts before it passes the borderline of nuclear threat. Finally, the authors argue that Israel, at war with Hamas after the October 7 attack and facing international pressure, worldwide demonstrations and demands to dismantle its army, may be pushed into a desperate response. Referring to the historical suffering of the Jewish people and to the biblical story of Samson, they suggest that the threat of losing their homeland could lead to a Masada-like act of colossal destruction, not necessarily nuclear, with catastrophic global consequences.

Abstract prepared by the editorial office from the full text of the article; the authors did not supply one.