Causality Test on Panel Data: An Application to the Study of the Causality Between Agricultural Growth and Demographic Burst in the Uemoa Area
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14738/aivp.103.12204Keywords:
Population growth-Agricultural growth-(None) Causality-UEMOA space-PanelAbstract
This article aims to analyze the main lines of the modern theoretical debate around the interactions between demographic growth and agricultural growth in the WAEMU space. It identifies the (none) causalities between certain demographic and agricultural growth variables focused on an autonomous and intermediate research field between the corpora of demography and agricultural growth theory. The results of the application of the approach of Konya (2006) based on a test of (none) causality in the sense of Granger (1969), show that the econometric results obtained are ambiguous to the theoretical corpus which was constituted between the strong population growth and weak agricultural growth in the WAEMU space. According to the results of the various (no) tests, the causality between the population surge and agricultural growth is far from being retroactive in certain countries (Benin and Mali) unlike other countries in the area where we note the existence of feedback between population growth and agricultural growth. Almost all the countries of the UEMOA space seem to be part of the logic of the populationists. Population growth in WAEMU countries remains a determining factor for agricultural growth. It is the main lever of agriculture. This result confirms the thesis of Jean Bodin (1530-1596).
References
Amadou SY (2014) : La croissance démographique peut-elle être profitable à la croissance économique pour une meilleure allocation optimale des ressources? Cadre Stratégique pour la Croissance et la Réduction de la Pauvreté, 2013-2017. Revue annuelle du CSCRP 2014-2017, juillet 2014.
Adam M. Komarek Siwa Msangi (2019): Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi. Agricultural Economics.2019;50:615–628.wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/agec
Akpan, S. B., Ebong, V. O. (2021). Agricultural land use and population growth in Nigeria. The need for synergy for a sustainable agricultural production. J. Agribus. Rural Dev., 3(61), 261–270. http://dx.doi.org/10.17306/J.JARD.2021.01424
Benson, T., 2004. Africa's food and nutrition security situation: where are we and how did we get here? IFPRI, Washington DC.
Bruinsma, J., 2002. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO perspective. Earthscan Publications Ltd, London, p. 432.
Bolimo. Lokele. Innocent (2015): Impact de la croissance économique sur le développement socioéconomique en République démocratique du Congo. Revue de L’IRSA N° 21 Octobre 2015
Boserup E. (1965), The conditions of agricultural growth. The economics of agrarian change under population pressure, London, Allen & Unwin Ltd., 124 p.
Boserup E. (1981), Population and technology, Blackwell, 255 p.
Brown L. R. et al. (1986), L'état de la planète, Paris, Economica. Comment’, Journal of Econometrics 10, 257–259. Commission Sud (Rapport de) (1990), Défis au Sud, Paris, Economica, 324 p.
Commoner B. (1988), Rapid population growth and environmental stress, in Consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries, United Nations Expert Group Meeting, New York, p. 231-263.
Commoner B., 1991. - "Croissance démographique rapide et pression sur l'environnement'', in : TAPINOS G., BLANCHET D. et HORLACHER David E. (éds), Conséquences de la croissance démographique rapide dans les pays en développement, p. 145-176. - Paris, INEDí Division de la Population des Nations-Unies. (Congres et Colloques, no 5).
Cruse G., 1994. -"La prise en compte de l'environnement comme facteur de développement», Revue Tiers-Monde,
Dumitrescu, Hurlin, C., E., et al. (2012). Testing for granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels.
Durbin, J. (1970), ‘Testing for serial correlation in least-squares regression when some of the regressors are lagged dependent variables’, Econometrica 38, 410–421
Gouriéroux, C. et Monfort, A. (1990), Séries temporelles et modèles dynamiques, Economica, Paris.
Granger C. W. J., 1969, "Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross spectral methods", Econometrica, 424 – 438.
Granger Clive W. J., 1980, "Testing for causality: A Personal Viewpoint", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 329 – 352.
Guengant J-P. et May J. 2001 « Revisiting the African Fertility Exception » Presented at the 2001Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America Washington, DC, March 29-31, 2001, 25pages http://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exldoc/pleinsdoc/plein
Guengant J-P., 2007 – « La démographie africaine entre convergences et divergences». In Ferry B. (Edit.) : L’Afrique face à ses défis démographiques, AFD-Ceped-Karthala : 27-121.
Haugh, L. D. (1976), ‘Checking the independence of two covariance-stationary time series:
Hogan D. J. (1991), « The impact of population growth on the physical environment », communication à la British Society for Population Studies, Londres, 10 janvier, 19 p.
Hsiao, C. (1986). Analysis of panel data, volume 34. Cambridge university press.
IFPRI, 2004. Assuring food and nutrition security in Africa by 2020: prioritizing actions, strengthening actors, and facilitating partnerships: proceedings of an all-Africa conference, Kampala, Uganda, April 1-3, 2004. International Food Policy Research Institute, Kampala Uganda, pp. xiii, 279.
Kevin Thomas (2011) : La croissance démographique impacte fortement la disponibilité alimentaire en Afrique. Groupe de la Banque Africaine de Développement. Le 28 octobre 2011 à Addis-Abeba
Konya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6):978{992.
Lericollais A., 1970. La détérioration d’un terroir : Sob, en pays Sérèr (Sénégal). Études rurales 37/38/39, 86-112.
Luc Cambrezy et Gabriel Sangli (2019): Croissance démographique, dynamiques de peuplement et évolution des systèmes agraires : le cas de la commune de Koumbia (Burkina Faso). Paru dans Espace populations sociétés, 2012/1 | 2012
Maddison A., 2007 – Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro Economic History, p. 347(traduction libre), Oxford University Press Maltus T., 1798. An essay on the principle of population. London: Printed for J. Johnson, in St .Paul’s Church-Yard.
Marchal J.Y., 1983. Yatenga, nord Haute-Volta : la dynamique d’un espace rural soudano-sahélien.Éd.ORSTOM, 849 p.
Mamy Soumaré1, Sidiki Traoré et Michel Havard (2020) : Croissance démographique, sécurité alimentaire et accès à la santé et à l’éducation en zone cotonnière du Mali. Cah. Agric. 2020, 29, 40 by EDP Sciences 2020 https://doi.org/10.1051/cagri/2020036
Nicoll Mac G. (1984), Consequences of rapid population growth overview and assessment, Population and Development Review, vol. 10, n° 2, p. 177-240.
Putri R F, M Naufal, M Nandini, D S Dwiputra, S Wibirama, J T S Sumantyo (2019): The Impact of Population Pressure on Agricultural Land towards Food Sufficiency (Case in West Kalimantan Province, Indonesia). International Conference on Environmental Resources Management in Global Region IOP Conf. Series: Earth and
Environmental Science 256 (2019) 012050 IOP Publishing doi:10.1088/1755-1315/256/1/012050
Paillard, S., Tréyer, S., Dorin, B., 2010. Agrimonde: scenarios et défis pour nourrir le monde en
Adegnika, M. (2022). Causality Test on Panel Data: An Application to the Study of the Causality Between Agricultural Growth and Demographic 2050. Quae, Versailles, p. 296.
Paul et Anne Ehrlich, “The Population Bomb” (1968); “The Population Explosion” (1990); “One with Nineveh:
Politics, Consumption, and the Human Future” (2004).
Pierce, D. A. et Haugh, L. D. (1977), ‘Causality in temporal systems: Characterization sand survey’, Journal of Econometrics 5, 265–293.
Pierce, D. A. et Haugh, L. D. (1979), ‘The characterization of instantaneous causality, a
Pingali P. and Binswanger H. (1984), Population density and agricultural intensification: a study of the evolution of technology in tropical agriculture, Agriculture and rural development Department, Research Unit, report n° aru 22, Washington, World Bank.
Ramade F. (1987), Les catastrophes écologiques, McGraw-Hill, 309 p.
Rosegrant M W, A, C.S., 2003. Global food security: challenges and policies. Science 302. Sandrine Lardic et Valérie Mignon, Économétrie des séries temporelles macroéconomiques et financières, Economica, Paris, 2002
Sekkat, K., (1989). L’analyse de causalité comme méthode de détermination des filières industrielles. Annales d’Economie et de Statistique, Vol 14, pp 191-224.
Shaw P. (1989), Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximatefactors, Environmental Conservation, vol. 16, n° 3,p. 199-208.
Simon J. (1981), The ultimate resource, Princeton University Press.
Sims Christopher A., 1972, "Money, Income and Causality", American Economic Review, 62 (4): 540 - 552. Agricultural land and population growth in Nigeria , the need for synergy for a sustainable agricultural production. Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development.
Tabutin D. et Thiltgès É., 1992. "Relations entre croissance démographique et environnement. Du doctrinal à l'empirique", Revue Tiers-Monde, vol. 33, no 130, p. 273-294.
Taondyandé, M., Yade, M., Nwafor, M. 2012. Suivi des processus de développement de l’agriculture africaine et de ses performances : une analyse comparative. Rapport annuel ReSAKSS-AO sur les tendances et les perspectives du secteur agricole en 2010.Institut international de recherche sur les politiques alimentaires (IFPRI) et Institut international d’agriculture tropicale (IITA).textes/pleins_textes_7/b_fdi_57-58/010025414.pdf
Tiffen M., Mortimore M., Gichuki F., 1994. More people less erosion. Environnemental recovery in Kenya. Ed. Willey. England, 311 p.
Vimard Patrice et Raïmi Fassassi (2011) : Démographie et développement en Afrique éléments rétrospectifs et prospectifs. Revue Cahiers québécois de démographie Volume 40, Numéro 2, Automne, 2011, p. 331–364. Micro simulation en démographie Wiener, N., 1956, « The Theory of Prediction », Modem Mathematics for Engineers, McGraw – Hill, New York.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Moutairou ADEGNIKA
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
