Assessing seasonal climate variability impact on the malaria patient’s cases in the north of Côte d'Ivoire
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14738/aivp.96.11254Keywords:
Rainfall, Temperature, Relative Humidity; malaria cases; Korhogo; Côte d’IvoireAbstract
In recent years, the impact of climate change on human health has attracted considerable attention including their effects on malaria, which have been of particular interest due to its disease burden and transmission sensitivity to climatic conditions. The main objective of the study is to examine the relationship between intra-annual climate variability and malaria transmission in the north of Côte d’Ivoire. The monthly incidence of malaria in Korhogo 1 health district was treated as a dependent variable, and meteorological variables were independent variables. Our results highlighted that malaria is influenced by all three climatic variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity). The highest effect of temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall on malaria cases is observed in the months of June, July, August, September, October and November respectively. The monthly rainfall and the monthly mean relative humidity were highly correlated to monthly incidence of malaria in population under-five years old. Meanwhile, the monthly mean temperature was highly correlated to malaria incidence of pregnant women over 15 years old and to monthly incidence of malaria in under-five. Moreover, combining monthly rainfall and monthly mean temperature, monthly rainfall and monthly mean relative humidity and monthly mean temperature and relative humidity were highly correlated to malaria incidence in patients influenced by the rainy season exclusively. The combination between monthly rainfall and monthly mean relative humidity was closely correlated to malaria incidence in malaria patient influencedby rainy and/or dry season.
References
World malaria report 2020: 20 years of global progress and challenges. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2020. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.
Kurup R., Deonarine, G., and Ansari, A.A., 2017. Malaria trend and effect of rainfall and temperature within Regions 7 and 8, Guyana. International Journal of Mosquito Research 2017; 4(6): 48-55 [4-4-5-421--1].
Gallup J.L., Sachs J.D., 2001. The Economic Burden of Malaria. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2001; 64:85-96.
World malaria report 2019. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2019. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.
Caminade C., Kovats S., Rocklov J., Tompkins A.M., Morse A.P., Colón-González F.J., Stenlund H., Martens P., and Lloyd S.J., 2014. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution. PNAS, vol. 111 (2014) no. 9, 3286–3291.
Ayanlade, A., Olugbade Adeoye, N., Babatimehi, O., 2013. Intra-annual climate variability and malaria transmission in Nigeria. Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series 21 (2013): 7–19.
Toulmin, c., 2005. Africa and climate change. In: Tiempo, Vol. 57, Special Issue on climate change and Africa, pp. 12–15.
Thomson M.C, Connor S.J., 2001. The development of Malaria Early Warning Systems for Africa. Trends In Parasitology, 17(9):438-444.
Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP) et ICF. 2016. Enquête de prévalence parasitaire du paludisme et de l’anémie en Côte d’Ivoire 2016. Rockville, Maryland, USA : INS, PNLP et ICF (https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/FR330/FR330.pdf).
Diouf, I., Fonseca, B.R., Caminade, C., Thiaw, W.M., Deme, A., Morse, A.P., Ndione, J.A., Gaye, A.T., Diaw, A., and Ndiaye, M.K.N., 2020.Climate Variability and Malaria over West Africa. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 102(5), pp. 1037 – 1047, doi:10.4269/ajtmh.19-0062.
Agusto, F.B., 2020. Optimal Control and Temperature Variations of Malaria Transmission Dynamics. Hindawi Complexity Volume 2020, Article ID 5056432, 32 pages.
Ngarakana-Gwasira, E.T., Bhunu, C.P., Masocha, M., and Mashonjowa, E., 2016. Assessing the Role of Climate Change in Malaria Transmission in Africa. Malaria Research and Treatment Volume 2016, Article ID 7104291, 7 pages.
Wardrop, N.A., Barnett, A.G., Jo-An Atkinson and Clements, A.C.A., 2013. Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Malaria Journal 2013, 12:452.
Huang, F., Zhou, S., Zhang, S., Wang, H., Tang, L., 2011.Temporal correlation analysis between malaria and meteorological factors in Motuo County, Tibet. Malaria Journal 2011, 10:54.
Imbahale, S.S., Paaijmans, K.P., Mukabana, W.R., Van Lammeren, R., Githeko, A.K., and W. Takken, W., 2011. A longitudinalstudy on Anopheles mosquito larval abundance in distinctgeographical and environmental settings in western Kenya,Malaria Journal, vol. 10, no. 1, article 81, 2011.
Galardo, A.K.R., Zimmerman, R.H., Lounibos, L.P., Young, L.J., Galardo, C.D., Arruda, M., D’Almeida Couto, A.A.R., 2009. Seasonal abundance of anopheline mosquitoes and their association with rainfall and malaria along the Matapi River, Amapi, Brazil. Med Vet Entomol 23: 335 – 349.
Briët, O.J., Vounatsou, P., Gunawardena, D.M., Galappaththy, G.N., Amerasinghe, P.H., 2008. Temporal correlation between malaria and rainfall in Sri Lanka. Malar J 7: 77.
Zhou, G., Minakawa, N., Githeko, A.K., and Yan, G.,2004. Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 101, no. 8, pp. 2375–2380.
Molineaux, L. (1988) The Epidemiology of Human Malaria as an Explanation of Its Distribution, Including Some Implications for Its Control. In: Wernsdorfer, W.H. and McGregor, I., Eds., Malaria, Principles and Practice of Malariology, Churchill Livingstone, New York, 913-998.
Paaijmans, K.P., Wandago, M.O., Githeko, A.K., Takken, W., 2007. Unexpected high losses of Anopheles gambiae larvae due to rainfall. PLoS ONE 2(11):e1146.
Teklehaimanot, H.D., Lipsitch, M., Teklehaimanot, A., Schwartz, J., 2004. Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms. Malar J 2004, 3:44.
Freeman, T., Bradley, M., 1996. Temperature is predictive of severe malaria years in Zimbabwe. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 90: 232.
Le Sueur, D., and Sharp, B.L., 1991. Temperature-dependent variation in Anopheles-merus larval head capsule width and adult wing length - implications for Anopheline taxonomy. Med Vet Entomol 1991, 5:55 – 62.
Rueda, L.M., Patel, K.J., Axtell, R.C., and Stinner, R.E., 1990. Temperature-dependent development and survival rates of culex quinquefasciatus and aedes aegypti (diptera: Culicidae), Journal of Medical Entomology,
Yamana, T.K., Eltahir, E.A., 2013. Incorporating the effects of humidity in a mechanistic model of Anopheles gambiae mosquito population dynamics in the Sahel region of Africa. Parasit Vectors 6:235.
Dago, D. N., Diarrassouba, N., Touré, A., Lallié, H. D., N’Goran, K. E., Ouattara, H., Kouadio, J. and Coulibaly, A., 2017. Whole Screening Analysis Discerning Recurrently Diagnosed Diseasesin a Northern Localityof Côte d’Ivoire, International Journal of Development Research, 7, (11), 16598-16604.
Ugwu, C.L.J., and Zewotir, T., 2020. Evaluating the Effects of Climate and Environmental Factors on Under-5 Children Malaria Spatial Distribution Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health 10(4) 304–314.
Kumar, V., Mangal, A., Panesar, S., Yadav, G., Talwar, R., Raut, D., and Singh, S., 2014. Forecasting Malaria Cases Using Climatic Factors in Delhi, India: A Time Series Analysis. Malaria Research and Treatment Volume 2014, Article ID 482851, 6 pages.
Diouf, I., Rodriguez-Fonseca, B., Deme, A., Caminade, C., Morse, A.P., Cisse, M., Sy, I., Dia, I., Ermert, V., Ndione, J-A., and Gaye, A.T., 2017. Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 1119; doi:10.3390/ijerph14101119.
Ankamah, S., Nokoe, K.S., and Iddrisu, W.A.?? 2018. Modelling Trends of Climatic Variability and Malaria in Ghana Using Vector Auto regression. Malaria Research and Treatment Volume 2018, Article ID 6124321, 11 pages.
Sacko, A., Sagara, I., Berthé, I., Diarra, M., Cissoko, M., Diarra, S.S., Coulibaly, D., Sanogo, M., Dicko, A., 2021. Evolution of Malaria Incidence in Five Health Districts, in the Context of the Scaling up of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention, 2016 to 2018, in Mali. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 840. https://doi.org/10.3390/ ijerph18020840.
Lingala, M.A.L., Poonam Singh, P., Verma, P., Ramesh C. Dhiman, R.C., 2020. Determining the cutoff of rainfall for Plasmodium falciparum malaria outbreaks in India. Journal of Infection and Public Health 13 (2020) 1034–1041.
Ateba, F. F., Sagara, I., Sogoba, N., Touré, M., Konaté, D., Diawara, S. I., Diakité, S. A. S., Diarra, A., Coulibaly, M. D. , Dolo, M., Dolo, A., Sacko, A., Thiam, S. M., Sissako, A., Sangaré, L., Diakité, M., Koita, O. A., Cissoko, M., Traore, S. F., Winch, P. J., Febrero-Bande, M., Shaffer, J. G., Krogtad, D. J., Marker, H. C., Doumbia, S., and Gaudart, J., 2020. Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of Malaria Incidence: A Comparison of Two Ecological Zones in Mali. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 4698; doi:10.3390/ijerph17134698.
Chaturvedi, S., and Dwivedi, S., 2020. Estimating the malaria transmission over the Indian subcontinent in a warming environment using a dynamical malaria model. Journal of Water and Health | 18.3 | 2020.
Mohammadkhani, M., Khanjani, N., Bakhtiari, B., Tabatabai, S.M., and Sheikhzadeh, K., 2019. The Relation between Climatic Factors and Malaria Incidence in Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran. SAGE Open July-September 2019: 1–10, DOI: 10.1177/2158244019864205.
Kipruto, E. K., Ochieng, A. O., Anyona, D. N., Mbalanya, M., Mutua, E. N., Onguru, D., Nyamongo, I. K., and Estambale, B. B. A., 2017. Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya. Malar J (2017) 16:220 DOI 10.1186/s12936-017-1848-2.
Kigozi, R., Zinszer, K., Mpimbaza, A., Sserwanga, A., Kigozi, S. P., and Kamya, M., 2016. Assessing temporal associations between environmental factors and malaria morbidity at varying transmission settings in Uganda. Malaria Journal (2016) 15:511 DOI 10.1186/s12936-016-1549-2.
Emeto, T. I., Adegboye, O. A., Rumi, R. A., Khan, M. I., Adegboye, M., Khan, W. A., Rahman, M., Streatfield, P. K., and Rahman, K. M., 2020. Disparities in Risks of Malaria Associated with Climatic Variability among Women, Children and Elderly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 9469; doi:10.3390/ijerph17249469.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2021 Siélé SILUE, Dougba Noel Dago, Adjon Anderson Kouassi, Alima Dajuma, Madina Doumbia, N’Datchoh Evelyne Touré, Sékou Kéita

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.