Perceived Climate Exposure, Agricultural Impacts and Food-System Vulnerability among Smallholder Farmers in Bong, Lofa and Nimba Counties, Liberia

Abstract

Background: Climate risk is experienced by smallholder farmers through interacting environmental, production and food-system pathways, but household surveys can easily confuse perceived change with observed meteorological trends. This study assessed reported climate exposure, perceived agricultural impacts and perceived food-security impacts among smallholder farmers in three Liberian counties. Methods: A quantitative cross-sectional survey included 419 respondents from Bong (n = 142), Lofa (n = 100) and Nimba (n = 177). Three multi-item scales were examined using descriptive statistics, internal-consistency analysis, full-sample and response-quality sensitivity comparisons, county and gender tests, and HC3-robust multivariable regression. A sensitivity sample excluded 124 respondents who gave uniform answers across all 43 Likert items. Results: Full-sample means were 3.949 (SD 0.528) for climate awareness and perceived exposure, 3.989 (SD 0.523) for perceived agricultural impacts, and 4.012 (SD 0.523; n = 412) for perceived food-security impacts. Corresponding sensitivity means were 3.921, 3.977 and 4.011. County differences were substantial and persisted after sensitivity exclusion, whereas unadjusted gender differences were not statistically significant. In robust adjusted models, county, age and household size were associated with multiple perceived-impact outcomes; the models explained 24.2%–31.8% of outcome variance. Conclusions: Surveyed farmers widely reported climatic, agricultural and food-system stress, but the findings describe perceptions and associations rather than measured climate trends, yield losses or causal effects. Independent climate, crop and market records are required to validate magnitude and timing. The results support county-sensitive climate services, pest and soil-water management, market resilience and longitudinal monitoring.