The Impact of Government Size on Financial Development: A Global Perspective
Keywords:
Government Size, Financial Development, Panel DataAbstract
This study investigates the linear effects of government size on financial development using a balanced panel of 71 countries from 1995 to 2021. Government size was measured using the commonly used general government final consumption expenditure as percentage of GDP (%), while financial development is proxied by private credit and deposit money bank assets (each as % of GDP). The estimation in this study relies on a dynamic system generalized methods of moments (GMM). The main result indicates that government size does not have a statistically significant impact on financial development at the global level. This study concludes that one-size-fits-all approach may not be effective. The results provide no conclusive support for either the political view or the development view.
References
REFERENCES
[1]. Andrianova, S. (2012). Public banks and financial stability. Economics Letters, 116(2012), 86–88.
[2]. Andrianova, S., Demetriades, P., & Shortland, A. (2008). Government ownership of banks, institutions, and financial development. Journal of development economics, 85(1-2), 218-252.
[3]. Andrianova, S., Demetriades, P. O., & Shortland, A. (2009). Is government ownership of banks really harmful to growth? (Economics and Finance Working Paper Series). London, Brunel University.
[4]. Baltagi, B. H., Demetriades, P. O., & Law, S. H. (2009). Financial development and openness: Evidence from panel data. Journal of development economics, 89(2), 285-296.
[5]. Baltagi, B. H., Demetriades, P. O, & Law, S. H. (2007). Financial development, openness and institutions. University of Leicester discussion paper in economics, 5.
[6]. Barth, J. R., Caprio Jr., G., & Levine, R. (1999). Financial regulation and performance: Cross-country evidence (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2037). Santa Monica, Calif.: Milken Institute.
[7]. Beck, T. (2013). Finance, growth and fragility: The role of government. International Journal Banking. Accounting and Finance, 5(1-2), 49–77.
[8]. Bertay, A. C., Demirguc-Kunt, A., & Huizinga, H. (2015). Bank ownership and credit over the business cycle: Is lending by state banks less procyclical? Journal of Banking and Finance, 50, 326–339.
[9]. Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
[10]. Caprio, G., &Peria, M.S.M. (2002). Avoiding disaster: Policies to reduce the risk of banking crises. Chapter 7 In E. Cardoso & A. Galal (Eds.), Monetary policy and exchange rate regimes: Options for the Middle East (pp. 193–230). Cairo, Egypt: The Egyptian Centre for Economic Studies.
[11]. Carvalho, D. R. (2014). The real effects of government owned banks: Evidence from an emerging market. Journal of Finance, 69, 577–609.
[12]. Cho, Y. J. (2010). Crisis resolution, policies, and institutions: Empirical evidence. In P. Honohan & L. Laeven (Eds.), Systemic financial distress: Containment and resolution (pp. 169–196). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
[13]. Cole, S. (2009). Financial development, bank ownership, and growth: Or, does quantity imply quality? The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 2009, 91(1), 33–51.
[14]. Coleman, N., & Feler, L. (2015). Bank ownership, lending and local economic performance during the 2008–2010 financial crisis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 71 (April), 50–66.
[15]. Cornett, M. M., Guo, L., Khaksari, S., & Tehranian, H. (2010). The impact of state ownership on performance differences in privately-owned versus state owned banks: An international comparison. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 19(1), 74–94.
[16]. Cull, R., & Martinez Peria, M. S. (2013). Bank ownership and lending patterns during the 2008–2009 financial crisis: Evidence from Latin America and Eastern Europe. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(12), 4861–4878.
[17]. De Haas, R., Korniyenko, Y., Pivovarsky, A., & Tsankova, T. (2015). Taming the herd? Foreign banks, the Vienna initiative and crisis transmission. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 24(3), 325–355.
[18]. Demetriades, P. O., & Hussein, K. A. (1996). Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries. Journal of development Economics, 51(2), 387-411.
[19]. Demirguc-Kunt, A. (2014). Presidential address: Financial inclusion. The Atlantic Economic Journal (2014), 42,349-356.
[20]. Dinc, S. (2005). Politicians and banks: political influences on government owned banks in emerging markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 77(2), 453-479.
[21]. Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied economics, 38(10), 1091-1110.
[22]. Farhi, E., & Tirole, J. (2012). Collective moral hazard, maturity mismatch, and systemic bailouts. American Economic Review, 120,60–93.
[23]. Fraccaroli, N., Sowerbutts, R., & Whitworth, A. (2020). Does regulatory and supervisory independence affect financial stability?.
[24]. Freixas, X., & Mayer, C. (2011). Banking, finance, and the role of the state. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 27(3), 397-410.
[25]. Gerschenkron, A. (1962). Economic backwardness in historical perspective (1962). The Political Economy Reader: Markets as Institutions, 211-228.
[26]. Gerschenkron, A. (1962). On the concept of continuity in history. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 106(3), 195-209.
[27]. Giannetti, M., & Simonov, A. (2013). On the real effects of bank bailouts: Micro evidence from Japan. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5(1), 135–167.
[28]. Gupta, N., & Mahakud, J. (2020). Ownership, bank size, capitalization and bank performance: Evidence from India. Cogent Economics & Finance, 8(1), 1808282.
[29]. Hryckiewicz, A., Kryg, N., Tsomocos, D. P., & Zadorozhna, O. (2025). Unveiling the power of state activism in times of distress. Economic Analysis and Policy, 86, 1346-1376.
[30]. Iannotta, G., Nocera, G., & Sironi, A. (2013). The impact of government ownership on bank risk. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 22(2), 152–176.
[31]. Khwaja, A., & Mian, A. (2005). Do lenders favor politically connected firms? Rent provision in an emerging financial market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(4), 1371–1411.
[32]. La Porta, R., Lopez‐de‐Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (2002). Government ownership of banks. The journal of finance, 57(1), 265-301.
[33]. Laeven, L., & Valencia, F. (2013). The real effects of financial sector interventions during crises. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(1), 147–177.
[34]. Lind, J. T., & Mehlum, H. (2010). With or without U? The appropriate test for a U‐shaped relationship. Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics, 72(1), 109-118.
[35]. Luo, J., & Wen, Y. (2015). Institutions do not rule: Reassessing the driving forces of economic development. FRB St. Louis Working Paper, (2015-1).
[36]. Panizza, U. (2012). Finance and economic development. International Development Policy, 3, 141–160.
[37]. Patrick, H. T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic development and Cultural change, 14(2), 174-189.
[38]. Rajan, R. G., & Zingales, L. (2003). The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century. Journal of financial economics, 69(1), 5-50.
[39]. Sapienza, P. (2004). The effects of government ownership of bank lending. Journal of Financial Economics, 72(2), 357–384.
[40]. Trad, K. (2026). Does institutional quality matters in the relationship between banks’ ownership and banking stability? Evidence from the MENA region. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 19(2), 519-541.
[41]. Xiao, S., & Zhao, S. (2012). Financial development, government ownership of banks and firm innovation. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(4), 880-906.
[42]. Yang, Y. P. (2018). Government ownership of banks: A curse or a blessing for the United States. Wm. & Mary Bus. L. Rev., 10, 667.
[43]. Zou, Y., Xu, J., & Panizza, U. (2026). Comparing financial returns: National development banks vs commercial banks. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 103171.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Arunnan Balasubramaniam, Chin Lee, Siong Hook Law

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
